Venture Archives - TODAY INDIA

Rethinking The Oil Change Business Venture

Annual quick lube survey, is it still viable?

I wish to comment on the Fast Lube Business and the annual survey done by Auto Laundry News, one of the few Industry Magazines for the car wash industry. In this 2001 survey, we see an increase on the number of locations out there. Yet the leader of the Industry is by far Jiffy Lube. We see variations on theme, but we can safely say that Jiffy Lube has adapted best to the American public and their desires when it comes to oil changes.

This survey showed the average customer would drive 5.7 miles to get an oil change. If 50% of the customers would drive 5.7 miles and 80% of the customers usually come from a three-mile radius to get a car wash, I see additional synergy. These car washes with oil lube centers are getting a further reach than the industry average. This is great news for those carwashes adding oil lube bays, but also it takes up space and if not marketed correctly it will not work. The survey was quick to show that oil change facilities do best in middle class areas, not high-end areas. They do poorly in low-income areas. This all makes sense. Free standing car washes were the most likely to have oil lube facilities on there properties. Interesting too is that minimum wage was not prevailing, normally the companies pay $8.00-10.00 per hour. Makes realistic sense and I believe good help starts in this country at $10.00 per hour in most metros and $8.00 hour in rural.

Only 23% of the fast lubes had a website. Only half had internet access in the locations. Average employees were 5 full time and 3 part timers. Luckily for the image of this industry 74% had specific uniforms. The average shop had 3 bays, not enough to do the volume if adequate blitz marketing and community based marketing were taking place. Average revenue was $32.00 per car. That is an awful lot of upselling since the average advertised price that I have noticed is around $19.99. Less than 30% were open on Sundays? Bad mistake since there is no time to change oil and wait in line for most Americans. Average monthly gross was $2,400.00 per month per bay?

This is shit, this is not even a viable business, these people are wasting their time. Think about it, you have cost of oil and filter too and labor? Forget that news. I question the viability of the entire oil change industry. The largest Jiffy Lube franchisee in the country with 180 units was de-listed from NASDAQ and so was another prominent auto care and lube company recently. I like the Kwik-Lube Company and feel they are doing it right, but also question the ROI of such an endeavor seeing these results and the cost to build the building and time to build it. One good thing that the oil lube bays have going for them is the up-sell, but as the consumer dollar gets tighter and the credit card debt gets higher and the fall out rates increase where will this extra impulse revenue and up-sell cash be coming form?

The Industry is still expanding and new entrants to the market place are hurting existing units and I question the saturation point, not on need, but on desire. No one wants to spend money on oil changes, they need to. People buy what they want, satellite TV and beer. Not what they need, so I see a frequency problem issue brewing and people waiting 5-6-7 thousand miles between changes. So I believe that if an oil lube bay is not already attached to another reason to frequent the facility it will soon be in desire straits. The survey also showed that 93% OF THE OIL LUBE BAYS USED ADVERTISING TO GET THEIR CUSTOEMRS? WHY? We do not advertise, word of mouth and happy customers advertise for us. There you go again more cost.

Also 60% of the surveyed said that competition was discounting. HMMM? You have labor costs that are high, frequency is down, new car technology on the horizon, cost of oil going to the big guys and throw in a price war? I see problem as the non-savvy operators leave facilities for sale and exit the market place. By eliminating the facility and going mobile with the existing customer base of let’s say a mobile truck repair business which can co-band and fleet services available you could beat these other companies since they running redline over saturations of mailer coupons and phone book ads and no web sites. Many companies are not watching the changing demographics at their locations and lease or property costs and unable to sell or borrow more due to their lousy profit margins. And what can you convert and Oil change bay into? Cover up the hole for a tire shop? What happens when Hydrogen cell comes and no one changes oil. Can you convert to filter type operation? Not really since often the tires and wheels are offset and will land the modular car into the lube bay hole. We have the solution and we can beat them in almost every aspect. Some consultants have said; “Bunch of dummies copying each other.”

Listen to this part of the survey, advertising dollars were spent on, here is where the respondents said they advertised; TV 15%, Direct Mail 51%, Radio 38%, Newspaper 35%, Bill Boards 18%, Yellow Pages 53%, other only 13%. Scary, all that costs money and everybody is running redline copying each other. This is what happens when people cannot think any longer and cannot adapt and do business at the speed of thought,

[http://www.speedofthought.com]

81% of respondents said they would honor competitor’s coupons? Whatever, why print them then. Let everyone else spend the money and take theirs? 80% said they have tried to use discounting to lure customers from other lube places to theirs. Boy this sounds like the carpet cleaning industry to me.

Breakdown in costs per job. 10% rent or property, 3% maintenance of facility, 26% labor, 30% materials, 4% utilities and many reported expecting that to double and some have already in the west experienced a tripling. Insurance 4% and that to expected to keep rising and some said 8%, Customer claims for damage 1%, this is in-excusable, Advertising 10%. Want to add those up for me. Why are they doing it?

Average new facility costs were; Land $206,000, Improvements $505,000, New equipment $36,000. WOW all that for little or no return? Average number of competitors within 10-mile radius? 36% said 3, 19% said two, 19% said 5, 7% said 5 or more. How can anyone invest this kind of money per location when we can build a couple of units for a total of $65,000 and nearly equal the number of potential vehicles to service? Also with AAA building oil change facilities and Wal-Mart getting into things, the competition will be bloody and that is a lot of money to invest in a business with an uncertain future. Not a good bet, if you were a betting man.

We are very much liking this Industry because we know things the Industry does not and we can slam them because they have missed the boat. We have seen a few companies which are looking into ways to change the oil on the water for yachts. What is even better is that they all missed the boat at the same time and are fighting on shore for a few little boats to get to the ship that is leaving the harbor. Who will survive this oil change war. The one who bests services the customer, they way the customer wishes to be serviced.

Venture Capitalism and Enterprise Revolution in Nigeria

The African Capital Alliance (ACA), a private equity fund manager in western Africa, announced the raising of $200 million from investors in July last year. The third installment of the Capital Alliance Private Equity (CAPE) fund will target important sectors such as power, oil and gas, communications and financial services in Nigeria and across the sub-Saharan region. The ACA is confident of eventually raising a total of $350 million for the fund from aid agencies, international banks and Nigerian institutional investors. The development reflects mounting confidence in Nigeria’s resurgent economy, considering the country’s fist such fund that started out in 1998 with a capital of just $35 million.

While there is no conclusive data on the size of the Nigeria equity market, estimates for the whole of Africa put it over $6 billion in 2000; South Africa, the continent’s largest economy, accounting for half the share. High economic growth fuelled by an enthusiastic reforms programme has seen Nigeria’s growth scale to almost double the figure for developed markets in recent years. The country’s GDP growth rate in 2006 stood at 5.6%, significantly higher than the US (3.2%) or the UK (2.8%)1. Although the private equity market is still in its infancy here, increasing opportunities to invest in high-growth businesses have succeeded to some extent in eroding the conventional insistence on public equity and debt. However, there continue to be significant risks attending investment in Nigeria due to unhealthy policies, a volatile security situation and massive infrastructure shortfalls. Much of this holds true for the continent at large and explains why it receives only a fragment of global foreign direct investment (FDI). Out of the estimated $250 billion in global FDI to developing countries in 2001, Africa received only $11 billion2.

For many international investors, venture capital and private equity in Nigeria are risky propositions because of political instability, violence, social unrest and corruption. Progress in this direction has been impeded by several other reasons as well:

* Poor corporate governance and lax regulatory mechanisms.

* Red tape, legal restrictions and hostile investment policies.

* High trading costs in the primary market for equities.

* Market volatility and the resulting high-risk perception.

* High exit risk for investors because of low liquidity.

* Difficult and often confusing ownership and property rights.

Over the last decade, Nigeria has displayed a steady commitment to reforms. The Investment and Securities Decree was passed into law soon after the return of civilian rule in 1999, opening up the economy to foreign investment. The government of former president Obasanjo also established the Investment and Securities Tribunal for speedy resolution of disputes arising out of investment deals. More recently, the Securities and Exchange Commission slashed transaction rates for equities from 6.9% to 4.2%. International venture capital investors have shown increasing interest in Nigeria after the liberalisation of several important markets like telecommunications, transport, and oil marketing. The fact that fresh policies have persuaded at least some investors to overlook the high cost of doing business in Nigeria is a significant achievement in itself.

Its large population and market size bestow tremendous potential on the Nigeria economy – Africa’s third largest and among the most rapidly growing. The country’s ambitious Vision 2020 programme and the UN Millennium Development Goals together represent considerable challenges in terms of economic revival. Past experience favours strongly against big businesses, which have had a dismal track record and a high-failure rate under both private and public operation. Undeniably, the fate of Nigeria’s long term goals rests on rapid proliferation of SMEs and their ability to drive an enterprise revolution that will sufficiently diversify the economy away from oil and reverse decades of stagnation. The objective is to use SMEs to deliver sustainable development, employment creation and most importantly, poverty alleviation.

This is where venture capitalism derives its significance in the context of Nigeria’s long-term ambitions. Private equity investment has been responsible for some of the most notable economic success stories across the globe. Entrepreneurs starting out with angel loans turned India around into the largest software exporter in the world. In South Korea, booming small high-tech businesses bypassed larger firms to lead the country’s recovery from the Asian economic crisis. Equity funded enterprises have likewise recorded high growth figures in developing countries from Asia, across Europe and in South America. The global experience with venture capitalism throws up a number of important considerations in terms of providing the right environment for rapid growth. The following are some of the most important challenges and considerations facing Nigerian policy makers in this regard:

* Establishing a venture capital technical assistance programme to enhance SME performance in diverse economic sectors.

* Institutionalising tax benefits for equity investment to attract foreign investors.

* Providing risk guarantees to create strategic venture capital industries that improve self reliance and curb import quotas.

* Enhancing venture capital capacity to stimulate and promote the industrial expansion.

* Focusing equity investment on SMEs that optimise resource utilisation and assist local raw material development.

* Promoting innovative business ideas, processes and techniques that boost both productivity and profitability.

* Hastening industrialisation through equity infusion in high-growth areas like telecommunications and tourism.

Nigeria’s reforms process prompted a unique voluntary initiative at the turn of the last century when the Nigerian Bankers’ Committee launched the Small and Medium Enterprise Equity (SMEEIS) scheme. Billed as an attempt to promote entrepreneurial expansion, the scheme required all locally operating commercial banks to earmark 10% of pre-tax profits for equity investment in small and medium enterprises. Even though more than Naira 18 billion had been set aside by 2003, utilisation of the funds remained abysmally poor at less than 25%. The Nigerian Central Bank owed it to a lack of viable projects and general reluctance toward equity partnership. If poor managerial and business packaging skills are areas of concern, the prevailing mindset against venture capitalism in both existing and emerging enterprises is even more so.

To quote former Central Bank governor Joseph Sanusi (29 May 1999-29 May 2004), accelerated economic development is not possible until Nigerian entrepreneurs learn to appreciate that “it is better to own 10% of a successful and profitable business than to own 100% of a moribund business”.

Small Business Venture Capital Strategies

When launching a new small business, often the entrepreneur will consider venture capital as a source of funding. Here are 3 tips to ensure that venture capital funding can be secured when sending out your business plan:

Send your business plan to the right people

Venture capitalists tend to specialize in certain kinds of businesses. Some will specialize by industry, only investing in new energy companies, for instance, while others look for a certain size of company to invest in. It is worth doing the research to determine who the venture capital backers are for your industry, before you start sending out your business plan. Venture capitalists who are not specific to your industry can provide recommendations to make your plan more appealing to other venture capitalists. However, it would naturally be a mistake to send your plan to potential investors who will not even consider it.

Make sure your business has the potential to be profitable enough

Most venture capitalists look for a return of about 5-10 times their initial investment. For example, an investment in a company of $2 million should yield a return of $14-20 million after about five years. To satisfy these requirements, it is generally necessary to have a business which has the potential for a high rate of return on the amount invested. If the rate of return can reasonably be expected to be lower, such as for a clothing retailer, then it is probably better to look for an alternate source of funding, such as an investment or commercial bank.

Remember to include an exit strategy for your investor

Venture capitalists generally do not want to be involved with a new venture for an indefinite period of time. Most will plan to leave the new venture after about five years, so you should offer a clear explanation of how this may be achieved. There can be a variety of reasons for this; some venture capital managers require that the holdings periodically be sold off to acquire other offerings. Nonetheless, by demonstrating that you understand the limited time frame for many venture capitalists, you automatically make your plan more appealing than those which do not.

In summary, by sending your business plan to the right people, by recognizing what rate of return is necessary for venture capitalist involvement, and by including an exit strategy, you can improve your odds of securing venture capital funding for a new and growing business.

The Complete List of Things to Evaluate Before You Open or Invest in a New Venture

Do you have an innovative idea you wish to market? Are you planning on opening a new business? Are you investing on somebody else’s idea?

If you said “yes” to any of these questions, don’t do it just yet!

Starting or investing on a new venture can be an emotional process full of anticipation and excitement. You need to keep a cool head and treat the process with the utmost objectivity.

To help with that, I’ve put together a complete list of questions you NEED to answer before you even think about putting a business plan together. This will help you make sure that no overlooked variable makes you incorrectly go forward or not. Make sure you don’t skip any part of the process and end the exercise with a very honest yes or no decision based on the answers.

You will find it difficult if not impossible to answer some of the questions. It is very important to understand the sureness of each response and the risk that each unanswered question implies. Handle this risk by analyzing scenarios with the different possible answers.

Write down a simple comment to each question, doing this formalizes your analysis. You can also think about each question in a SWOT analysis context identifying each one as a Strength, Weakness, Opportunity or Threat.

The Dos and Don’ts to keep in mind:

Do this all the time

Be methodic, analyze completely. Understand the need, competition and constrains, then tailor and differentiate.
Be on the lookout all the time for the fatal flaw that will make this fail.
Lots of questions can’t be answered or are too vague, check the risk of not knowing them.

Don’t Do This

Don´t follow the classic idea method: “I have an idea, let me think how to shove it to the channel or customer”.
Don’t focus on the features of the product, focus on the need you are trying to fulfill.
Don’t get tempted to skip a full analysis.
The most frequent mistake is to think everybody in the market is like you. If you like the product, everybody else will.
It is common to confuse a good idea with a good business opportunity, they are not the same.
Thinking “We have no competition” is only for naive entrepreneurs.
Don´t obsess with first mover´s advantage, most of the time funds prefer second movers because the idea is already validated.

The questions you need to answer:

Product or Service

Can you describe the business idea in 25 words or less?
Is the idea scalable? Is it limited to your time or something else?
Can your offering later change / adapt?
Risk of not being able to develop / manufacture the product?

Market or Customer

Can you do formal market analysis or only informal? (Interviews, observations, focus groups, surveys, market experiments, etc.)
Who is the customer? How precisely can he be defined? Location, profile, etc.?
What problem are you solving? Why would the customer buy? Does he want to?
Commercial risk, no willingness to buy?
How big is the market? Growing or shrinking?
How penetrated is the market by the industry? What share can you get fast? Later?
What price is he willing to pay? Based on what? How important is it?
How price-conscious is your customer?
Risk of change in consumer behavior?
Can the target market later be changed? Can you later attack other levels in the value chain?

Industry

Can you do formal analysis or only informal?
Is it thriving? Shrinking?
Do suppliers have power? Risk of supply shortage? Change in price?
Barriers to entry:
. Contractual? Patent or trademark?
. Lead time in tech development? Innovation?
. Management? People?
. Location?
. Regulations and government?
. Other barriers?
Can barriers change easily?
Do you have relations in place?
. Customers?
. Suppliers?
. Partners? Talent? Investors?
Experience in industry? Yours? Other management?
Risk of regulatory or other government related changes or intervention?
Technology risk of obsolescence?

Competition

Can you do formal competition analysis? If not, what informal analysis can you do? Is it good?
Who else is attacking the market? How? Successfully?
What is your competition´s pricing strategy?
What is the closest thing in the target market to your product? Are you a first mover? Second? More than that?
Strategic advantages / differentiators. Clearly visible to consumers or only in your mind? Sustainable? True, important and provable?
. Function? Design? Quality? Uniqueness? Innovation?
. Delivery? Channel? Availability? Location?
. Cost? Marketing? Sales?
. Ignorance of buyers?
. Customer service?
. Other?
Are you taking advantage of a certain opportunity, situation or advantage?
How fast can competition catch up?

Channel

Which options do you have?
Which one is the ideal? Why?
If the first choice does not work, does it make sense to try others?
What channels does your target market prefer?
Which ones are your competitors using?
How much integration do the channels have?
Will the channel change with customer habits or tech?
Risk of no access to the correct channel or consumer?

Sales and Advertising

How will you get customers?
How will you retain customers? Is it important?
Describe the necessary salesforce?
Can a salesperson of ordinary skills sell it?
Do you need advertising? Which kind? How much? Is it important?

Economics

How clearly can you model the basic economics of the idea? (Costs, sales, margins, required capital, ROI, etc.)
Will there be economies of scale? Are they important?
Accounts receivable? Can it become a problem?
How will you finance initially? Later?

Management

Do you have or can get the necessary management team?
Do management / leadership / organizational capabilities make a difference? How big a difference?
How valuable is intellectual property?
Does it make sense to do this solo? It normally doesn’t.

Other

Validation:
. How fast can you know if the business can work or not?
. Can you define the variables to know it? How fast can the data flow?
. Do you need product development to know? Dangerous!
. Do you need a long selling process or many tries to know? Dangerous!
Can you diversify? Not easy on new ventures, but can it be done?
Give me the biggest drawback / risk (fatal flaw) of the idea? The one that will make it fail?
Enlist the seemingly fatal flaws that can be fixed.
Does the idea fit your life objectives? Workload?
Do you feel passionate about the idea? Enjoyable? Are you doing it only for the money?
Give me the upside / best case scenario?
Give me the downside / worst case scenario?